The French Public's Attitudes to a Future COVID-19 Vaccine: The Politicization of a Public Health Issue

"It is crucial to guarantee that all the necessary precautions are taken before marketing the vaccine and to communicate transparently on the process..."

France has been deemed one of the most vaccine-hesitant countries in the world. When a COVID-19 vaccine becomes available, will it be widely used there? This is one of the questions addressed in this paper, which presents the results of 4 online surveys conducted weekly in April 2020 among representative samples of the French population 18 years of age and over. These surveys were conducted during a period when the French population was on lockdown, and the daily number of deaths attributed to the virus had reached its peak. The researchers discuss the results against the backdrop of the recent transformations of the French political landscape and the cultural pathways via which political beliefs can affect perceptions of vaccines during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Among the 5,018 individuals surveyed, almost one-quarter declared they would "certainly" (7.9%) or "probably" (16.1%) refuse the coronavirus vaccine if it were available. Table 1 in the paper displays the results of descriptive and multivariate analyses highlighting factors associated with refusal. For example, women, people aged under 35 years old, and those with a lower level of household income per consumption unit (HICU) were more likely to refuse the vaccine. However, no difference was observed across educational levels or between people who were diagnosed with COVID-19 (2.5% of the sample) and those who were not. (That said, those who were highly concerned about being infected with the disease were less likely to refuse the vaccine compared to others (16.9% vs. 25.8%, p<0.0001).)

After adjustment for gender, age, education level, HICU, and COVID19 diagnosis in a logistic model, partisan preference remained significantly associated with refusing the coronavirus vaccine. Attitudes towards the future vaccine did not follow the traditional mapping of political attitudes along a Left-Right axis. Rather, respondents who felt close to radical parties and those who did not feel close to any party and did not vote at the last presidential campaign were significantly more likely to refuse the vaccine.

Three main, but not exclusive reasons, were given to refuse the coronavirus vaccine: thinking that a vaccine produced in a rush is too dangerous - safety concerns (reason chosen by 64.4% of refusers), being against vaccination in general (27.6%), and considering the vaccine useless because of the harmless nature of COVID-19 (9.6%). Approximately 8% of refusers cited another reason, such as a general lack of trust or doubt about the efficiency of the vaccine. A Far-Right-parties-related effect was higher when people refused the vaccine because of opposition to vaccination in general, while a Far-Left-parties-related effect was higher when people refused the vaccine because of the harmless nature of the disease.

Reflecting on the findings, the researchers draw on the French sociological literature on ordinary attitudes to politics, as well as the cultural pathways via which political beliefs can affect perceptions of vaccines during the COVID-19 pandemic. For instance, during the period covered by the surveys, members of the Far-Right and the Far-Left severely criticised the government on many issues. In doing so, they may have fostered a general distrust of public health authorities and decisions regarding anything related to COVID-19 - including future vaccines. The researchers suggest: "how governments will anticipate possible reticence in the future and whether they manage to avoid vaccines becoming part of political debates constitutes...[a] crucial factor."

In proposing ideas for future study, the researchers note that, while they did not assess "the extent of French vaccine critics' mobilisations on social media and their effect on the wider public's attitudes, such phenomena should be investigated further to better understand the origins of the reticence towards a future COVID-19 vaccine."